Tristan MacLean

Khatereh Roghangar will be presenting Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change.

Date: 21 May 2025
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models that overlook uncertainties in soil properties and climate projections. Using thermal modeling (TEMP/W) and Monte Carlo simulations, the study developed a custom Python tool to evaluate thaw settlement, serviceability, and optimized maintenance strategies.

Applied to real-world cases, the Hudson Bay Railway and Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway, the results highlight the growing variability in thaw behaviour over time and the critical role of embankment thickness in performance. By integrating probabilistic analysis into infrastructure design, this work enables more resilient and cost-effective planning for cold regions affected by permafrost degradation.

Victor Pozsgay will be presenting A model of temperature inversions to correct bias in reanalysis data.

Date: 14 May 2025
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

The magnitude and frequency of slope failures in permafrost zones have increased in recent decades. Permafrost warming and thawing represent major contributing factors to large slope failures, which have the potential to damage infrastructure and pose a risk to human life and surrounding ecosystems. 

I will present a simulation workflow to generate ensemble simulations of the ground thermal regime at any point globally. The model is driven by reanalysis data, which are known to poorly represent temperature inversions. Hence, I will focus on modelling temperature inversions in sub-arctic valleys where cold-air pooling is particularly intense in cold months. This framework allows for consistent and efficient production and analysis of mountain permafrost simulations in relation to slope failures. However, its main strength and appeal lie in its ability to be used globally and for a large number of sites, efficiently. 

Zhina Rezvani will be presenting Assessing Thaw Settlement Vulnerability of the Hudson Bay Railway in the Face of Climate Change.

Date: 23 April 2025
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

The effects of climate change are intensified in northern regions due to polar amplification. As a result, the stability and functionality of infrastructure in these areas are under greater threat than ever before. The Hudson Bay Railway (HBR), located in northern Manitoba, is a prime example of vulnerable infrastructure facing the challenges of a warming climate.

In this webinar, Zhina Rezvani will share insights into assessing the impacts of climate change on permafrost thaw, which leads to soil settlement beneath the railway embankment. Her research involves finite element thermal modeling followed by coupled thermo-mechanical modeling to simulate both the current and projected future conditions of the soil and permafrost under the railway embankment and adjacent area. The findings of this study will support HBR policymakers in making informed, strategic decisions regarding the future of the railway, whether through improvement methods, mitigation measures, or potential realignment of certain sections.

Emma Street will be presenting Exploring Traditional Knowledge of Permafrost Change in the Gwich’in Settlement Area and Inuvialuit Settlement Region.

Date: 16 April 2025
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

Rapid climate change at high latitudes is transforming permafrost landscapes: threatening infrastructure, ecosystems, and socio-cultural traditions in Arctic communities. This project seeks to better understand the implications of permafrost change in Gwich’in and Inuvialuit communities in the Canadian Arctic. Using semi-structured interviews and ethnographic mapping in collaboration with knowledge holders, the goals of this project are to (1) document Traditional Knowledge pertaining to permafrost, (2) map evidence of permafrost change in Gwich’in and Inuvialuit communities, and (3) inform responsive monitoring programs. 110 interviews have been completed for this project among the eight communities of Paulatuk, Sachs Harbour, Tuktoyaktuk, Ulukhaktok, Fort McPherson, Tsiigehtchic, Aklavik, and Inuvik. This presentation describes the Two-Eyed Seeing and community-driven participatory research.

Olivia Meier-Legault will be presenting How can we learn more about permafrost thaw in Canada from borehole temperature observations?

Date: Wednesday 7 May
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) is widely used as a key indicator of permafrost change and has long informed climate assessments. However, in the presence of melting ice, latent heat effects can dampen temperature trends, making interpretation difficult. To address this limitation, complementary metrics derived from simulations resembling borehole temperature observations have been developed and tested to show their ability to provide new information on heat gain in the permafrost column.

In this seminar, Olivia will present the application of five of these metrics on borehole temperature observations. The metrics are (1) MAGT, (2) mean annual ground surface temperature, (3) top of permafrost, (4) depth of zero annual amplitude, and (5) the thermal integral. She will cover how these metrics maximize the use of available data and improve our understanding of permafrost thaw in Canada.

Hosein Fereydooni will be presenting Ground Ice Detection with Spectral Induced Polarization.

Date: 2 April 2025
Time: 13:00-14:00 Eastern Time
Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).

The melting of ground ice poses significant hazards in permafrost regions, leading to ground instability, infrastructure damage, and environmental changes. Detecting ground ice effectively is crucial for mitigating these risks, yet conventional geophysical methods—such as electrical resistivity, seismic surveys, and ground-penetrating radar—often produce ambiguous results due to the overlapping properties of frozen and unfrozen ground.

This presentation will explore the potential of Spectral Induced Polarization (SIP) as a more precise method for identifying ground ice. It will begin by discussing the theoretical foundations and mathematical principles of SIP, followed by an examination of various polarization mechanisms, with a focus on those specific to frozen environments, and an explanation of relaxation time. The study will then present field measurement results from a permafrost site in Yukon, demonstrating SIP’s ability to detect and distinguish ground ice in real-world conditions.